Power rankings · stage picks
Singapore Major predictions and power rankings
Who goes deep in Singapore, who falls in Stage 1 and who is underrated by the seeding. Our model plays the event 20,000 times; MOUZ, Team Vitality and FURIA come out on top.
Power rankings for the Singapore Major
All 32 teams ordered by their chance to win the event. Playoff and final chances show how deep each team goes on average.
| Team | Stage | HLTV | Playoffs | Final | Title |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stage 3 | #4 | 92% | 38% | 23% | |
| Stage 3 | #2 | 89% | 32% | 18% | |
| Stage 3 | #1 | 86% | 29% | 16% | |
| Stage 3 | #5 | 81% | 23% | 12% | |
| Stage 3 | #3 | 78% | 21% | 10% | |
| Stage 3 | #7 | 68% | 15% | 6.5% | |
| Stage 3 | #6 | 65% | 14% | 5.7% | |
| Stage 3 | #12 | 50% | 6.9% | 2.2% | |
| Stage 2 | #8 | 34% | 5.8% | 2.2% | |
| Stage 2 | #9 | 23% | 3.1% | 1.0% | |
| Stage 2 | #11 | 18% | 2.0% | 0.5% | |
| Stage 2 | #16 | 16% | 1.5% | 0.4% | |
| Stage 2 | #10 | 15% | 1.6% | 0.4% | |
| Stage 2 | #15 | 11% | 1.1% | 0.3% | |
| Stage 2 | #14 | 11% | 1.0% | 0.3% | |
| Stage 2 | #19 | 13% | 1.3% | 0.3% | |
| Stage 1 | #13 | 7.0% | 0.6% | 0.2% | |
| Stage 1 | #23 | 7.7% | 0.8% | 0.2% | |
| Stage 1 | #20 | 5.6% | 0.5% | 0.1% | |
| Stage 1 | #26 | 6.4% | 0.5% | 0.1% | |
| Stage 1 | #18 | 5.0% | 0.4% | 0.1% | |
| Stage 1 | #22 | 4.3% | 0.3% | 0.1% | |
| Stage 1 | #33 | 3.8% | 0.3% | <0.1% | |
| Stage 1 | #17 | 3.0% | 0.2% | <0.1% | |
| Stage 1 | #31 | 2.1% | 0.1% | <0.1% | |
| Stage 1 | #21 | 2.6% | 0.2% | <0.1% | |
| Stage 1 | #44 | 0.9% | <0.1% | <0.1% | |
| Stage 1 | #50 | 1.1% | 0.1% | <0.1% | |
| Stage 1 | #49 | 0.3% | <0.1% | <0.1% | |
| Stage 1 | #60 | 0.2% | <0.1% | <0.1% | |
| Stage 1 | #65 | 0.1% | <0.1% | <0.1% | |
| Stage 1 | #46 | 0.1% | <0.1% | <0.1% |
From favourites to long shots
The field splits into four groups by title and playoff chance:
Favourites
Title chance of 10% or more. They start in Stage 3 and skip the best-of-one openers. MOUZ, Team Vitality, FURIA, Aurora Gaming and Team Spirit.
Contenders
Strong enough to win the event, but they need a good bracket draw and a clean Stage 3. BetBoom, Team Falcons, Legacy and FUT Esports.
Dark horses
A playoff run in the arena is realistic; the trophy would be an upset. Nemiga Gaming, G2 Esports, 1win, Natus Vincere, The MongolZ, MIBR and Astralis.
Long shots
Every round is a fight for survival. Their value for bettors lies in single matches, not outrights. PARIVISION, Ninjas in Pyjamas, FaZe Clan, HEROIC, Team Liquid, Eternal Fire, 100 Thieves, 9z, DENDELE, M80, Wildcard, Imperial, BC.Game Esports, FlyQuest, Chinggis Warriors and Lynn Vision Gaming.
Stage 1 predictions
Sixteen teams, best-of-one openers and only eight places in Stage 2. The table is sorted by the chance to advance:
| Team | Seed | Advance | 3–0 | 0–3 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 73% | 21% | 5.7% | |
| 2 | 72% | 20% | 5.6% | |
| 3 | 69% | 19% | 6.0% | |
| 4 | 67% | 18% | 6.3% | |
| 5 | 64% | 17% | 6.7% | |
| 6 | 62% | 16% | 7.4% | |
| 7 | 60% | 17% | 7.4% | |
| 8 | 57% | 15% | 8.0% | |
| 9 | 52% | 12% | 11% | |
| 10 | 48% | 11% | 12% | |
| 11 | 39% | 8.1% | 15% | |
| 12 | 37% | 7.8% | 16% | |
| 13 | 30% | 5.8% | 19% | |
| 14 | 27% | 5.4% | 21% | |
| 15 | 22% | 4.2% | 25% | |
| 16 | 21% | 3.9% | 27% |
The model’s safest Stage 1 picks are Ninjas in Pyjamas, PARIVISION and HEROIC; the opening round is best-of-one, so upsets in Round 1 are common.
Stage 2 predictions
Eight seeded teams wait for the eight Stage 1 survivors. The seeded teams are favoured, but opening Stage 2 matches are still best-of-one:
| Team | Seed | Advance | 3–0 | 0–3 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 76% | 24% | 4.9% | |
| 2 | 70% | 20% | 6.1% | |
| 3 | 64% | 17% | 8.0% | |
| 4 | 61% | 16% | 8.1% | |
| 5 | 60% | 16% | 8.1% | |
| 6 | 56% | 14% | 9.4% | |
| 8 | 53% | 13% | 10% | |
| 7 | 53% | 13% | 10% |
Stage 1 qualifiers join this table after 27 November; the picks are updated when the stage is drawn.
Stage 3 predictions
The top eight seeds enter here, and every match is best-of-three. Eight teams leave for the arena:
| Team | Seed | Playoffs | 3–0 | 0–3 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 92% | 39% | 1.1% | |
| 2 | 89% | 34% | 1.3% | |
| 3 | 86% | 28% | 1.7% | |
| 4 | 81% | 23% | 2.3% | |
| 5 | 78% | 21% | 2.5% | |
| 6 | 68% | 13% | 4.1% | |
| 7 | 65% | 13% | 4.5% | |
| 8 | 50% | 7.8% | 7.8% |
Stage 3 chances already include the risk of meeting a strong Stage 2 qualifier.
Our Stage 1 Pick'Em
The editorial team’s ten Stage 1 picks, built on the tables above:
Major Pick'Em · Final picks
Stage 1 picks
3:0Undefeated
3:1 · 3:2Advance
0:3Eliminated
CS2 Major Betting editorial team · picks lock on
Reasons, the comparison with the model and the Stage 2, Stage 3 and playoff picks are in the Singapore Major Pick'Em picks.
Underrated and overrated by the seeding
Seeds follow Valve’s standings, while HLTV’s ranking weighs recent results differently. Where the two lists disagree, the seeding may misjudge a team:
- Underrated by the seeding: Lynn Vision Gaming, 9z and MIBR rank at least five places higher on HLTV than in the Valve standings;
- Overrated by the seeding: Imperial, FlyQuest, 100 Thieves, Chinggis Warriors, Ninjas in Pyjamas and HEROIC rank at least five places lower on HLTV;
- Line-up news can change both lists; check the team pages before betting.
Match-by-match picks appear on the Major matches and predictions list once the pairings are out.
Frequently asked questions
Questions about the Singapore Major predictions.
Who will win the PGL Major Singapore 2026?
The model favourite is MOUZ (23%), ahead of Team Vitality and FURIA. No team wins more than one Major in four simulations.
Which Stage 1 teams are most likely to advance?
Ninjas in Pyjamas, PARIVISION, HEROIC, FaZe Clan.
How are the predictions made?
From 20,000 simulations of the full Major with team strength from Valve standings points, plus editorial notes on line-ups and form.








