Outright odds · all 32 teams
PGL Major Singapore 2026 winner odds
Who wins the first Major in Southeast Asia? MOUZ lead the model with a 23% title chance. Every team below has its chance, its fair odds and, once markets open, the best price from the rated bookmakers.
Singapore Major outright odds
Title chance is the share of 20,000 simulated Majors that each team wins. Fair odds are 1 ÷ chance, a price without bookmaker margin. A bookmaker price above the fair odds is marked as value.
| Team | Stage | Title chance | Fair odds | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 MOUZ | Stage 3 | 23% | 4.27 | Market not open |
 Team Vitality | Stage 3 | 18% | 5.58 | Market not open |
 FURIA | Stage 3 | 16% | 6.13 | Market not open |
 Aurora Gaming | Stage 3 | 12% | 8.68 | Market not open |
 Team Spirit | Stage 3 | 10% | 9.82 | Market not open |
 BetBoom | Stage 3 | 6.5% | 15.50 | Market not open |
 Team Falcons | Stage 3 | 5.7% | 17.51 | Market not open |
 Legacy | Stage 3 | 2.2% | 45.25 | Market not open |
 FUT Esports | Stage 2 | 2.2% | 46.30 | Market not open |
 Nemiga Gaming | Stage 2 | 1.0% | 95.69 | Market not open |
 G2 Esports | Stage 2 | 0.5% | 192.31 | Market not open |
 1win | Stage 2 | 0.4% | 222.22 | Market not open |
 Natus Vincere | Stage 2 | 0.4% | 227.27 | Market not open |
 The MongolZ | Stage 2 | 0.3% | 357.14 | Market not open |
 MIBR | Stage 2 | 0.3% | 370.37 | Market not open |
 Astralis | Stage 2 | 0.3% | 377.36 | Market not open |
 PARIVISION | Stage 1 | 0.2% | 500+ | Market not open |
 Ninjas in Pyjamas | Stage 1 | 0.2% | 500+ | Market not open |
 FaZe Clan | Stage 1 | 0.1% | 500+ | Market not open |
 HEROIC | Stage 1 | 0.1% | 500+ | Market not open |
 Team Liquid | Stage 1 | 0.1% | 500+ | Market not open |
 Eternal Fire | Stage 1 | 0.1% | 500+ | Market not open |
 100 Thieves | Stage 1 | <0.1% | 500+ | Market not open |
 9z | Stage 1 | <0.1% | 500+ | Market not open |
 DENDELE | Stage 1 | <0.1% | 500+ | Market not open |
 M80 | Stage 1 | <0.1% | 500+ | Market not open |
 Wildcard | Stage 1 | <0.1% | 500+ | Market not open |
 Imperial | Stage 1 | <0.1% | 500+ | Market not open |
 BC.Game Esports | Stage 1 | <0.1% | 500+ | Market not open |
 FlyQuest | Stage 1 | <0.1% | 500+ | Market not open |
 Chinggis Warriors | Stage 1 | <0.1% | 500+ | Market not open |
 Lynn Vision Gaming | Stage 1 | <0.1% | 500+ | Market not open |
Bookmakers had not opened outright markets for the Singapore Major on 3 November 2026. Prices from the rated bookmakers appear in the last column as soon as they do; until then, compare the model’s fair odds with the first prices you see. 18+.
Favourites and their odds
Five teams win more than half of all simulated Majors. All of them start in Stage 3, so they play two fewer Swiss stages than the qualifiers.
HLTV #4 · VRS #1
MOUZ
23% title chance, fair odds 4.27. Reaches the playoffs in 92% of simulations. Top of the Valve standings on 2 November 2026 with the most points in the field, and fourth in the HLTV ranking.
HLTV #2 · VRS #2
Team Vitality
18% title chance, fair odds 5.58. Reaches the playoffs in 89% of simulations. Won both Majors of 2025, in Austin and Budapest. No CS2-era roster has closed out more Major finals.
HLTV #1 · VRS #3
FURIA
16% title chance, fair odds 6.13. Reaches the playoffs in 86% of simulations. Reached the Cologne final and lead the HLTV world ranking. Brazil’s strongest chance of a Major title in years.
HLTV #5 · VRS #4
Aurora Gaming
12% title chance, fair odds 8.68. Reaches the playoffs in 81% of simulations.
HLTV #3 · VRS #5
Team Spirit
10% title chance, fair odds 9.82. Reaches the playoffs in 78% of simulations. Shanghai 2024 champions, with donk among the most explosive riflers of the CS2 era.
Odds by starting stage
The starting stage changes everything. A Stage 1 team needs twelve series wins for the trophy, a Stage 3 seed only six:
| Stage | Teams | Strongest team | Its title chance | Chance the winner comes from this stage |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stage 1 | 16 | PARIVISION | 0.2% | 0.9% |
| Stage 2 | 8 | FUT Esports | 2.2% | 5.4% |
| Stage 3 | 8 | MOUZ | 23% | 94% |
That is why outright prices on Stage 1 and Stage 2 teams are long: even strong line-ups face up to five extra best-of-one or best-of-three series.
How to find value in Major outrights
An outright bet is worth it only when the price beats the real chance. Five checks before betting on a winner:
- Compare the bookmaker price with the fair odds in the table; a lower price means the margin eats the value;
- Shop around: outright margins differ more between bookmakers than match-winner margins;
- Check line-ups and visas before the event, since a stand-in changes a team’s strength;
- Remember the best-of-five final: the stronger team wins it more often than a best-of-three;
- Consider “to reach the playoffs” or “top four” markets for Stage 2 and Stage 3 outsiders.
Implied probability and margin are explained in the guide on how to read CS2 odds, with a calculator.
How our model works
The model plays the whole Major, from Stage 1 to the Grand Final, 20,000 times. Each simulation follows the real format:
- Team strength comes from Valve standings points, the same list that seeds the Major;
- A map is won with a chance set by the points gap on a flat Elo-style scale: 100 points is about 55% for one map;
- Series chances follow from map chances: best-of-one, best-of-three and the best-of-five Grand Final;
- Swiss stages pair teams with the same record and send 3–0 to 3–2 teams through; the playoffs are seeded by Stage 3 record;
- Line-up changes, form and map pools are not in the numbers; the editorial notes cover them.
A model chance is an estimate, not a promise. A 20% favourite still fails to win four Majors in five.
Frequently asked questions
Questions about outright betting on the Singapore Major.
Who is the favourite to win the PGL Major Singapore 2026?
MOUZ, with a 23% title chance in our model. The next two are Team Vitality and FURIA.
Can a Stage 1 team win the Major?
It is possible but rare: Stage 1 teams win 0.9% of simulated Majors combined, because they need twelve series wins.
When do bookmakers open Singapore Major outright odds?
Usually once the field is final and the first stage approaches. Prices move after every round, so the best value is often before Stage 3 starts.
What are fair odds?
The price a bet would have without the bookmaker’s margin: 1 divided by the chance. A 20% chance has fair odds of 5.00.